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    經濟衰退期間就業最穩定的四大行業

    經濟衰退期間就業最穩定的四大行業

    CHLOE BERGER 2022-08-10
    經濟衰退對個人的影響也可能取決于你從事的行業。

    盡管人們擔心經濟衰退很快到來,教育行業仍然保持穩定。圖片來源:蓋蒂圖片社

    美國到底有沒有陷入經濟衰退,已經和打工人是否應該重返辦公室一樣,成為爭論最激烈的社會話題。

    最近的新聞通篇都是裁員,科技和金融領域尤其如此,亞馬遜(Amazon)、特斯拉(Tesla)和Shopify等響當當的大公司紛紛對疫情初期人數暴漲的在職員工啟動裁員。

    不過,盡管人們對經濟不穩定及高通脹憂心忡忡,最新的就業報告仍顯示出一線希望:7月新增就業崗位高于預期。而且,盡管美聯儲前理事蘭德爾?克洛斯納最近承認,經濟衰退馬上到來的“可能性增高了”,但他補充說,衰退的破壞性可能不如你想象中那么強烈。

    經濟衰退對個人的影響也可能取決于你從事的行業,因為有些行業往往更能抗住不穩定的考驗。領英(LinkedIn)向《財富》雜志提供了一份清單,有四個行業在經濟低迷時仍然可以保持穩定。

    領英的高級經濟師科里·坎特加研究了從2015年1月到2022年6月,哪些行業的招聘率變化最小。此外,除了2020年的低迷期,這些行業在經濟衰退期間的非農就業人數也未出現大幅下降。這些行業按照穩定性從高到低排列如下:

    1.公用事業

    公用事業行業在經濟衰退期間往往能保持平穩,甚至會出現就業增長。新冠疫情期間,該行業的就業也僅僅出現了小幅收縮。雖然它是榜單上四個行業中最穩定的,但坎特加說,該行業員工的就業水平也最低,也就是說,想要在這個行業找份工作很難。

    2.政府

    與公用事業一樣,政府有時甚至會在衰退期間增加就業(同樣,新冠病毒疫情期間除外)。根據坎特加的說法,在所列四個行業中,政府的就業水平最高。

    3.教育

    盡管有許多關于疫情期間大量老師出現職業倦怠的報道,還有一些教師跳槽到其他行業的故事,但對于選擇繼續教書的人來說,教育仍然是一個穩定的行業。該行業的就業水平位居第二。

    4.消費服務

    消費服務包括維修維護、個人和洗衣服務以及會員協會和組織。在某些經濟衰退期間,該行業的就業水平出現上升,但當經濟不安全程度加深時,就業水平會略有下降。該行業的就業水平在四個行業中排名倒數第二。

    坎特加說,考慮到公眾接受度的問題,解雇政府、非營利組織和教育行業的員工可能更難一些。

    “即使在經濟困難時期,政府、教育和非營利行業也不能隨便調整員工數量,因為這些行業要想修改預算編制,往往需要得到公眾某種形式的批準?!彼忉屨f,“在經濟衰退期間縮小政府、教育和社會服務的規模往往是不受歡迎的做法?!?/p>

    坎特加說,公用事業、維修維護服務等行業之所以波動性較小,因為即使在經濟衰退期間,這些服務也不能算是奢侈,而是日常生活的一部分。

    沒有人能完全不受經濟衰退的影響,而仍在經受勞動力短缺的行業哪怕在經濟不穩定時期也更像是就業市場上的“乞丐”,沒什么資格挑肥揀瘦。

    坎特加解釋說:“盡管各行各業的就業在經濟衰退時期都面臨風險,但當前醫療和酒店等行業的人手短缺仍然嚴重,這種情況恐怕會一直持續到經濟衰退期間?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

    譯者:Agatha

    美國到底有沒有陷入經濟衰退,已經和打工人是否應該重返辦公室一樣,成為爭論最激烈的社會話題。

    最近的新聞通篇都是裁員,科技和金融領域尤其如此,亞馬遜(Amazon)、特斯拉(Tesla)和Shopify等響當當的大公司紛紛對疫情初期人數暴漲的在職員工啟動裁員。

    不過,盡管人們對經濟不穩定及高通脹憂心忡忡,最新的就業報告仍顯示出一線希望:7月新增就業崗位高于預期。而且,盡管美聯儲前理事蘭德爾?克洛斯納最近承認,經濟衰退馬上到來的“可能性增高了”,但他補充說,衰退的破壞性可能不如你想象中那么強烈。

    經濟衰退對個人的影響也可能取決于你從事的行業,因為有些行業往往更能抗住不穩定的考驗。領英(LinkedIn)向《財富》雜志提供了一份清單,有四個行業在經濟低迷時仍然可以保持穩定。

    領英的高級經濟師科里·坎特加研究了從2015年1月到2022年6月,哪些行業的招聘率變化最小。此外,除了2020年的低迷期,這些行業在經濟衰退期間的非農就業人數也未出現大幅下降。這些行業按照穩定性從高到低排列如下:

    1.公用事業

    公用事業行業在經濟衰退期間往往能保持平穩,甚至會出現就業增長。新冠疫情期間,該行業的就業也僅僅出現了小幅收縮。雖然它是榜單上四個行業中最穩定的,但坎特加說,該行業員工的就業水平也最低,也就是說,想要在這個行業找份工作很難。

    2.政府

    與公用事業一樣,政府有時甚至會在衰退期間增加就業(同樣,新冠病毒疫情期間除外)。根據坎特加的說法,在所列四個行業中,政府的就業水平最高。

    3.教育

    盡管有許多關于疫情期間大量老師出現職業倦怠的報道,還有一些教師跳槽到其他行業的故事,但對于選擇繼續教書的人來說,教育仍然是一個穩定的行業。該行業的就業水平位居第二。

    4.消費服務

    消費服務包括維修維護、個人和洗衣服務以及會員協會和組織。在某些經濟衰退期間,該行業的就業水平出現上升,但當經濟不安全程度加深時,就業水平會略有下降。該行業的就業水平在四個行業中排名倒數第二。

    坎特加說,考慮到公眾接受度的問題,解雇政府、非營利組織和教育行業的員工可能更難一些。

    “即使在經濟困難時期,政府、教育和非營利行業也不能隨便調整員工數量,因為這些行業要想修改預算編制,往往需要得到公眾某種形式的批準?!彼忉屨f,“在經濟衰退期間縮小政府、教育和社會服務的規模往往是不受歡迎的做法?!?/p>

    坎特加說,公用事業、維修維護服務等行業之所以波動性較小,因為即使在經濟衰退期間,這些服務也不能算是奢侈,而是日常生活的一部分。

    沒有人能完全不受經濟衰退的影響,而仍在經受勞動力短缺的行業哪怕在經濟不穩定時期也更像是就業市場上的“乞丐”,沒什么資格挑肥揀瘦。

    坎特加解釋說:“盡管各行各業的就業在經濟衰退時期都面臨風險,但當前醫療和酒店等行業的人手短缺仍然嚴重,這種情況恐怕會一直持續到經濟衰退期間?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

    譯者:Agatha

    Whether the U.S. is in a recession or not has become as hotly contested as the debate on whether workers should return to office.

    Layoffs have dominated the news recently, especially in tech and finance as big names like Amazon, Tesla, and Shopify cut down their workforces that had grown exponentially during the early pandemic.

    But despite fears of economic insecurity and high inflation, the latest jobs report shows a silver lining: employers added more jobs in July than initially predicted. And while Randall Kroszner, the former Federal Reserve governor, recently admitted that there is an “elevated possibility” of an imminent recession, he added that it likely won’t be as devastating as you might think.

    The personal impact of a recession may also depend on what industry you work in, as some tend to weather instability better than others. There are four industries in particular that typically remain stable during a downturn, according to a list LinkedIn provided to Fortune.

    Kory Kantenga, senior economist at LinkedIn, examined which industries had the least variation in hiring rates from January 2015 to June 2022. They also didn’t show dramatic drops in non-farm payrolls during a recession, with the exception of the downturn in 2020. They’re ranked from most to least stable:

    1. Utilities

    This sector tends to remain flat and even experience increases in employment during recessions. When the coronavirus recession hit, utilities only experienced a small decline. While it’s the most stable industry of all four on this list, Kantenga says those working in utilities experience the lowest employment level—that means it’s a more difficult industry to get a job in.

    2. Government

    Like the utilities sector, the government sometimes even adds employment during recessions (again, with the exception of the coronavirus recession). Government has the highest employment level of all industries listed, according to Kantega.

    3. Education

    Despite reports of massive burnout and stories of teachers defecting to other industries during the pandemic, education remains a stable industry for those who choose to remain teaching. This industry has the second highest employment level.

    4. Consumer Services

    Consumer services involves jobs in repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services, and membership associations and organizations. Employment levels increase during some recessions, but slightly decrease during deeper times of economic insecurity. Consumer industries has the second lowest level of employment of all four industries.

    Simply laying off workers in government, nonprofit, and education fields can be more difficult because of how it’s generally received by the public, Kantega says.

    “Even when hard times hit, industries like government, education, and nonprofits cannot easily adjust their workforces because changing their budget usually requires some type of social approval,” he explains. “Withdrawing government, educational, and social services in a recession is generally frowned upon.”

    Other industries, like utilities and repair and maintenance services, often experience less volatility because they remain less of a luxury and part of lifestyle even during a recession, Kantega says.

    No one is completely immune to being affected by a recession, but industries still dealing with the labor shortage are more beggars than choosers during times of instability.

    “While workforces in all industries are vulnerable in a recession, some industries like health care and hospitality still have severe staffing shortages that may endure well into a recession,” explains Kantega.

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