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    末法時代,全球妖股橫行

    末法時代,全球妖股橫行

    NICHOLAS GORDON 2022-08-10
    最近,不少股票出現了令投資者無法理解的暴漲。

    中國投資者給因為無法解釋的原因出現異動的股票起了一個與眾不同的名字:“妖股”。圖片來源:VCG/VCG/GETTY IMAGES

    美國媒體將尚乘數科(AMTD Digital)稱為“網紅股”,因為這家公司的股票在7月IPO之后迅速上漲15,000%。

    但中國投資者對這類股票有一個特別的稱呼:“妖股”,這類股票的走勢與整體市場趨勢不一致,其上漲和下跌與公司基本面沒有太大關系。這個術語的出現早于“網紅股”,可以追溯到中國2015年的上一次散戶投資熱。當投資者懷疑一家公司的股價暴漲可能是源于市場操縱而不是業務改善或社交媒體上的過度繁榮時,也會用“妖股”形容這類股票。

    “Demon” is the English translation of the first Chinese character in the phrase “妖股,” which refers to things that cannot be explained, like a rapid increase in stock prices.

    “妖股”中的“妖”是指無法解釋的事情,例如股價的快速暴漲。

    最近,妖股這個詞經常被提及。

    香港互聯網公司尚乘數科7月15日在紐約證券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)上市,在短短幾周內股價暴漲15,000%。該公司的市值一度超越中國電商巨頭阿里巴巴(Alibaba)。

    目前,尚乘數科的股價較8月2日的最高點已經下跌了71%,估值縮水了1,000億美元。但其交易價格依舊是IPO價格的46倍,且估值遠高于IBM、Paypal和SAP等老牌科技公司。尚乘數科2021年收入2,500萬美元,而IBM的營收高達574億美元。

    包括公司本身在內,沒有人知道其股價為何會有這樣出色的表現。在所謂致投資者的感謝信中,公司稱“自公司IPO以來,沒有任何重大情況、事件或與公司業務和經營有關的其他事務”,可以解釋股價暴漲的原因。

    另外一家中國金融公司智富融資(Magic Empire Global)上周五上市后,股價暴漲5,800%,因股價波動觸發了多次交易停牌。

    2月,中國建筑公司匯通建設(Huitong Construction)的股價在上海證券交易所上漲近600%,公共汽車制造商中通客車(Zhongtong Bus)的股價在5月至7月期間上漲了590%。

    與新冠疫情關聯的股票同樣被稱為“妖股”,其表現均跑贏大盤。去年,天津一家小型醫療公司九安醫療(Andon Health)的股價在深圳證券交易所上漲560%,部分原因是該公司在2021年1月與美國陸軍簽署了供應家用新冠檢測試劑的協議。

    中國金融博主路道音(音)對《南華早報》表示,妖股通常是“小盤股,發行價低于20元”,或不足3美元。路表示,這些公司“必須契合最新、最熱門的話題”,類似于美國的網紅股。

    官方統計數據顯示,中國股票市場上散戶占絕大多數,散戶交易占總交易量的70%。相比之下,紐約梅隆銀行(BNY Mellon)的數據顯示,散戶交易者僅占美國股票交易的25%。

    匯豐銀行(HSBC)首席亞洲股票策略師、《從零開始了解亞洲股市》(Asia’s Stock Markets From the Ground Up)一書的作者赫勒爾德·范·德爾·林德表示:“散戶一直是中國股市的主力。直到最近,中國股市才出現國內機構投資者?!?/p>

    范·德爾·林德表示:“散戶的主導地位可能帶來截然不同的市場動態,包括妖股的出現?!?/p>

    中國散戶可能由于中國股票市場的惰性,而被妖股所吸引。跟蹤上海證交所上市的所有股票的上證綜合指數(SSE Composite Index)在過去12個月下跌了7.7%,過去五年幾乎沒有上漲。跟蹤500家深圳上市公司的深圳綜合指數去年下跌18%,在過去五年僅上漲了20%。相比之下,標普500指數在過去12個月下跌6.5%,過去五年上漲了70%。

    但清華大學五道口金融學院副院長張曉燕告訴《南華早報》,中國散戶投資者“金融素養有限”。缺乏經驗可能導致他們容易成為市場操縱和欺詐的受害者,例如炒高拋售等手段。

    2021年初,美國散戶投資者受到社交媒體和WallStreetBets子論壇等論壇的刺激,蜂擁投資游戲驛站(Gamestop)和AMC影院(AMC Cinemas)等股票。這些“網紅股”的股價上漲超過1,500%,令對沖基金、股票分析師和監管部門迷惑不解。

    隨著股市整體下滑,以及美聯儲(U.S. Federal Reserve)加息促使人們紛紛選擇更安全的避險資產,網紅股熱潮在美國已經基本消退。游戲驛站和AMC影院的股價分別較去年的最高點下跌了50%和60%(但依舊比2021年的發行價高10倍。)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估計,散戶投資者在網紅股繁榮時期的收益已經損失殆盡。(財富中文網)

    譯者:劉進龍

    審校:汪皓

    美國媒體將尚乘數科(AMTD Digital)稱為“網紅股”,因為這家公司的股票在7月IPO之后迅速上漲15,000%。

    但中國投資者對這類股票有一個特別的稱呼:“妖股”,這類股票的走勢與整體市場趨勢不一致,其上漲和下跌與公司基本面沒有太大關系。這個術語的出現早于“網紅股”,可以追溯到中國2015年的上一次散戶投資熱。當投資者懷疑一家公司的股價暴漲可能是源于市場操縱而不是業務改善或社交媒體上的過度繁榮時,也會用“妖股”形容這類股票。

    “Demon” is the English translation of the first Chinese character in the phrase “妖股,” which refers to things that cannot be explained, like a rapid increase in stock prices.

    “妖股”中的“妖”是指無法解釋的事情,例如股價的快速暴漲。

    最近,妖股這個詞經常被提及。

    香港互聯網公司尚乘數科7月15日在紐約證券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)上市,在短短幾周內股價暴漲15,000%。該公司的市值一度超越中國電商巨頭阿里巴巴(Alibaba)。

    目前,尚乘數科的股價較8月2日的最高點已經下跌了71%,估值縮水了1,000億美元。但其交易價格依舊是IPO價格的46倍,且估值遠高于IBM、Paypal和SAP等老牌科技公司。尚乘數科2021年收入2,500萬美元,而IBM的營收高達574億美元。

    包括公司本身在內,沒有人知道其股價為何會有這樣出色的表現。在所謂致投資者的感謝信中,公司稱“自公司IPO以來,沒有任何重大情況、事件或與公司業務和經營有關的其他事務”,可以解釋股價暴漲的原因。

    另外一家中國金融公司智富融資(Magic Empire Global)上周五上市后,股價暴漲5,800%,因股價波動觸發了多次交易停牌。

    2月,中國建筑公司匯通建設(Huitong Construction)的股價在上海證券交易所上漲近600%,公共汽車制造商中通客車(Zhongtong Bus)的股價在5月至7月期間上漲了590%。

    與新冠疫情關聯的股票同樣被稱為“妖股”,其表現均跑贏大盤。去年,天津一家小型醫療公司九安醫療(Andon Health)的股價在深圳證券交易所上漲560%,部分原因是該公司在2021年1月與美國陸軍簽署了供應家用新冠檢測試劑的協議。

    中國金融博主路道音(音)對《南華早報》表示,妖股通常是“小盤股,發行價低于20元”,或不足3美元。路表示,這些公司“必須契合最新、最熱門的話題”,類似于美國的網紅股。

    官方統計數據顯示,中國股票市場上散戶占絕大多數,散戶交易占總交易量的70%。相比之下,紐約梅隆銀行(BNY Mellon)的數據顯示,散戶交易者僅占美國股票交易的25%。

    匯豐銀行(HSBC)首席亞洲股票策略師、《從零開始了解亞洲股市》(Asia’s Stock Markets From the Ground Up)一書的作者赫勒爾德·范·德爾·林德表示:“散戶一直是中國股市的主力。直到最近,中國股市才出現國內機構投資者?!?/p>

    范·德爾·林德表示:“散戶的主導地位可能帶來截然不同的市場動態,包括妖股的出現?!?/p>

    中國散戶可能由于中國股票市場的惰性,而被妖股所吸引。跟蹤上海證交所上市的所有股票的上證綜合指數(SSE Composite Index)在過去12個月下跌了7.7%,過去五年幾乎沒有上漲。跟蹤500家深圳上市公司的深圳綜合指數去年下跌18%,在過去五年僅上漲了20%。相比之下,標普500指數在過去12個月下跌6.5%,過去五年上漲了70%。

    但清華大學五道口金融學院副院長張曉燕告訴《南華早報》,中國散戶投資者“金融素養有限”。缺乏經驗可能導致他們容易成為市場操縱和欺詐的受害者,例如炒高拋售等手段。

    2021年初,美國散戶投資者受到社交媒體和WallStreetBets子論壇等論壇的刺激,蜂擁投資游戲驛站(Gamestop)和AMC影院(AMC Cinemas)等股票。這些“網紅股”的股價上漲超過1,500%,令對沖基金、股票分析師和監管部門迷惑不解。

    隨著股市整體下滑,以及美聯儲(U.S. Federal Reserve)加息促使人們紛紛選擇更安全的避險資產,網紅股熱潮在美國已經基本消退。游戲驛站和AMC影院的股價分別較去年的最高點下跌了50%和60%(但依舊比2021年的發行價高10倍。)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估計,散戶投資者在網紅股繁榮時期的收益已經損失殆盡。(財富中文網)

    譯者:劉進龍

    審校:汪皓

    U.S. media outlets called AMTD Digital, whose shares surged by as much as 15,000% shortly after its July IPO, a “meme stock.”

    But Chinese investors called it something else: a “demon stock,” or a stock that’s bucking overall market trends and whose rise and fall may have little to do with a company’s fundamentals. The term is much older than “meme stocks,” dating back to the country’s last retail investor boom in 2015. It’s also used when investors suspect a company’s price surge is perhaps caused by market manipulation, rather than business improvements or social media exuberance.

    The term is getting a lot of use lately.

    Shares in AMTD Digital, a Hong Kong–based internet company, surged by as much as 15,000% in the weeks following its July 15 IPO on the New York Stock Exchange. At times, the company’s valuation was enough to overtake Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.

    The stock has now sunk by 71% from its Aug. 2 peak, losing as much as $100 billion in value. But shares are still trading at 46 times the IPO price, and its valuation is still greater than that of tech stalwarts like IBM, Paypal, and SAP. AMTD Digital reported $25 million in revenue for 2021, compared to IBM’s $57.4 billion.

    No one, including the company itself, knows why AMTD Digital’s shares are performing so well. In a so-called thank-you note to investors, the company said there are “no material circumstances, events, nor other matters relating to our company’s business and operating activities since the IPO date” that would explain the surge in prices.

    Another China-based company, financial firm Magic Empire Global, surged 5,800% after its debut on Friday, requiring multiple trading halts for volatility.

    Chinese construction firm Huitong Construction rose almost 600% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in February, while bus manufacturer Zhongtong Bus surged by as much as 590% between May and July.

    Stocks connected to COVID-19 are also getting the “demon stock” label for beating the markets. Andon Health, a small Tianjin medical company, rose 560% on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange over the past year, in part due to signing a deal with the U.S. Army to provide at-home COVID tests in January 2021.

    A demon stock is “usually a small cap with a relatively low starting price of below 20 yuan,” or just under $3, Lu Daoyin, a Chinese financial blogger, told the South China Morning Post. These companies “must align with the latest and hottest topics,” much like meme stocks in the U.S., says Lu.

    Retail investors make up the vast majority of trading on Chinese equity markets, accounting for 70% of total trades, according to official statistics. By comparison, retail traders make up 25% of all U.S. equity trading, according to data from BNY Mellon.

    “Retail investors were traditionally the backbone of the stock markets in China,” says Herald van der Linde, chief Asia equity strategist for HSBC, and author of Asia’s Stock Markets From the Ground Up. “Only recently have domestic institutional investors emerged.”

    The dominance of retail investors can lead to very different market dynamics, “including the emergence of ‘demon’ stocks,” says van der Linde.

    Chinese retail investors may be drawn to demon stocks due to the sluggishness of China’s equity markets. The SSE Composite Index, which tracks all the stocks trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, is down 7.7% over the past 12 months, and has logged almost no gains over the past five years. The Shenzhen Component Index, which tracks 500 Shenzhen-traded companies, is down 18% over the past year, and only up 20% over the past five years. The S&P 500, by comparison, is down 6.5% over the past twelve months, and up 70% over five years.

    But Chinese retail traders “have limited financial literacy,” Zhang Xiaoyan, associate dean at Tsinghua University, told the SCMP. That lack of experience could leave them prey to market manipulation and scams, such as pump-and-dump schemes.

    In early 2021, U.S. retail investors, spurred on by social media and forums like the WallStreetBets subreddit, flocked to companies like Gamestop and AMC Cinemas. Prices in “meme stocks” surged by over 1,500%, confounding hedge funds, stock analysts and regulators.

    The meme stock frenzy has largely faded in the U.S., amid a broader slump in markets and a flight to safer assets due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. Shares in Gamestop and AMC Cinemas are down 50% and 60% from their peaks last year (though they are still trading at prices 10 times higher than they were at the beginning of 2021). Morgan Stanley estimates that retail traders have now lost all of their gains from the meme stock boom.

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